Thursday, May 9, 2013

We're bad at assessing probabilities of being harmed ... gun edition

Citizens are bad at assessing probabilities of harm.  People think some events, like shark attacks, airplane rides, terrorist attacks etc. occur more frequently than the do.  For example, how many people do you think die from shark attacks each year in Hawaii compared to drowning?  Answer is here.

Here's a story from the LA Times on gun crimes.  Gun crimes have dropped dramatically in the past 15-20 years, but the majority of the public thinks it has risen.

This makes sense, as there have been a couple very high-profile mass-shootings recently.  With all the press coverage we have seen from Aurora and Sandy Hook, many people might now overestimate the probability of gun crimes occurring   This, of course, plays into the hands of the Obama administration and those pushing for more gun regulations.  Just as his former Chief of Staff said ...

No comments:

Post a Comment