Thursday, November 8, 2012

Discussion on future of Republican party on poker site

I still read a forum at a poker site from time-to-time,  It's a small community by forum standards, but there are many really smart people there from different backgrounds.  There is an interesting post on the future of the Republican party there, and I responded with some thoughts, which I'll share here.  For the full discussion, see this link.

On the question of: "Is the Republican Party Dead"
* Given Obama didn't have much to run on this election, it's pretty reasonable to ask what chances Republicans will have in the future. What happens if the unemployment rate is 5.9% or lower in 2016? (Which I think is completely reasonable.) Unless Republicans can broaden their appeal with Hispanics, it will be tough to win presidential elections in the future. 

* That being said, if Hurricane Sandy doesn't hit - who knows about this one. After the hurricane, Obama could be seen as a president. He didn't have to answer questions about Libya or the economy for the final 10 days of the election. The average of polls shifted by two points towards Obama in the last 10 days. 

On the post-election diagnosis:
* Whenever one side wins by 1 or 2 points, pundits talk about the losing side having total failures in their strategy while the winning side was brilliant. We have all played enough poker to know that sometimes you just get cold-decked, right? This happens both ways - I remember hearing how the Democratic party was dead after the election in 2004. 

On a comment that Republicans have a problem in having to veer to the right to win the nomination:
* I think Nside's point on Republicans having to veer to the right is also (potentially more?) true for Democrats having to veer to the left. Obama is very liberal. So was John Kerry. Moderate Democrats seem to be a rare breed anymore, and they certainly don't get presidential nominations. Sometimes they even get beat in senatorial primaries for being moderates (like the Democrat VP nominee in 2000).

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